US shale gas boom predicted to peak before 2020

A new high resolution study of the main US shale gas fields, reported in Nature, predicts that production will peak before 2020 and fall sharply by 2030. This is much less optimistic than previous estimates - even the most conservative, from the EIA. They expected a higher peak, about 2025, followed by a plateau. But this new study does not assume that new wells will be as productive as current ones, because the geologists chose the best sites first.

from the Nature article Natural Gas; The fracking fallacy

This adds weight to my earlier post Why green Jobs are better than fracking jobs

Why green jobs are better than fracking jobs

My main objection to developing shale gas in the UK is that it will contribute to climate change - we need to use less gas and oil, not more. However there is at least one other good reason why green jobs are better than fracking jobs for the UK - they last.

Yesterday I went to a workshop by Julian Huppert (our Cambridge MP) on how to keep climate change and related issues high up on the government agenda. One point he made was that some people (including some MPs) are more motivated by everyday issues than climate change. So it helps when green policies also have non-green benefits. One of the benefits of green policies often cited is green jobs. But are green jobs better than other sorts of jobs? For example are renewable energy jobs, or energy efficiency jobs better than fracking jobs?

Why we need to pay for fracking regulations

My first thought on reading 'Taxpayers to fund 100s of fracking boreholes across the country' (Guardian) was - why are we paying for environmental monitoring for fracking ? Why don't we make the fracking companies pay? But my second thought was that the monitoring agencies have to be completely independent of fracking money and hence influence. The boreholes are for monitoring ground water for contamination and for detecting earthquakes. We need to collect data before fracking starts so that we have a baseline to detect changes. I strongly object to fracking because we want to take less oil and gas out of the ground, not more, see 'Renewable Energy or Fracking'. However if there is going to be any then we have to have strong independent regulation.

This is why - The Downside of the Boom (New York Times) relates a shocking tale of energy companies in North Dakota polluting the environment with impunity because the officials responsible for regulation are elected and the energy companies bankroll their election campaigns.

Renewable energy or Fracking?

There are now proposals to make it easier for energy companies to get permission for fracking for oil and gas [1]. This comes just a few days after Russia has just signed a gas trade deal with China [2]. If Russia sells its gas to China rather than to Europe, then where is Europe going to get its gas from? Is fracking the answer? I believe not. Fracking might bring many good things but renewable energy ticks all the same boxes and more.

What could fracking do to our trade deficit?

George Osborne says our economic recovery is not secure [1] and we aren't exporting enough which suggests he is worried about our trade deficit and is another reason for him to be keen on fracking in the UK. The trade deficit is the difference between the value of exports and imports. In a healthy economy they ought to be about the same, or in surplus - the Euro area is currently in surplus. However, the UK has been in deficit since 1984. An increasing proportion of this is due to importing oil and gas - if we could get a significant proportion of our gas from fracking how much difference would that make?

Why are we even thinking of fracking?

Our prime minister says he is keen for us to develop our shale gas resources in order to bring down our energy bills [1] and the Church of England urges us to consider seriously any measures that will help relieve fuel poverty [2]. In the USA, massive investment in shale gas has lead to a big drop in price: wholesale gas now costs only half what it did in 2007 and domestic retail prices have dropped by 20% [3]. In evidence to parliament in 2011, gas drilling company Cuadrilla said shale gas 'has the potential to lower natural gas prices (tending to reduce electricity prices)'. However in June this year a representative from the same company, Mark Linder commented on the subject: 'We've done an analysis and it's a very small…at the most it's a very small percentage…basically insignificant' [4]. How can this be - and if it is why are we fracking at all?

Worried about gas wells leaking methane

Even without fracking, gas wells can leak methane. Some surveys have found high methane levels close to wells but unless you have a baseline reading before the well was drilled you can't be absolutely sure it is caused by the well. However, it only takes leakage of a few % to make 'clean' gas as bad as coal for greenhouse gas emissions. Energy companies are in denial over the issue and there isn't enough good data to evaluate the magnitude of the problem.

What's wrong with fracking?

Picture from Accenture [7]

Oil and gas reserves in the North Sea are dwindling but it is claimed that there are vast reserves of shale gas under our feet which can be accessed using a new technique called fracking. In the USA fracking has transformed the oil and gas industry to the extent that production is rising and gas prices have gone down [1]. Should we go for it too or not? There are concerns about the environmental impacts of fracking and uncertainties about the size of reserves. Is gas from fracking a useful transition fuel or should we invest exclusively in renewable energy starting now. The UK government has recently allowed drilling to continue in Lancashire which had been suspended due to earthquakes. Developing a local gas production industry would be good for our energy security and good for our balance of payments - imported energy is expensive. So how bad is fracking anyway? In this post I summarise the issues.